Archivado en: política | escrito por goleech | 03/19/2005 | 12:24

Mexico's left-wing presidential front-runner looks unstoppable

ACCORDING to political taste, it is either an act of mass political pollution or a celebration of people power. All over Mexico City, the slogan "No al Desafuero" currently adorns anything that can be adorned, from walls to car bumpers to T-shirts. All the fuss is about the political future of the city's popular left-wing mayor, Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador.

For almost a year now, attempts to strip him of his immunity from prosecution (a process known as a desafuero) have been proceeding through the political system. If successful, this could knock him out of contention for the presidential election in 2006, as he would have to face trial for what even his opponents admit is a minor legal transgression. But now, as some sort of a resolution to the convoluted process seems to be in sight, it looks increasingly likely that Mr Obrador will beat the rap.

The saga began when the federal procurator-general asked that Mr Obrador be stripped of his legal immunity to face charges arising from his building a road across private land to a city hospital--despite a court order banning him from doing so. President Fox's right-of-centre government claims that this desafuero is a legitimate legal process, which should be followed through to the end.

Rubbish, says Mr Obrador. He claims the whole thing has been a blatantly political charade from the outset. All the polls make Mr Obrador the clear front-runner to become the next president, usually by at least ten points. The mayor claims that his political opponents are using a legal technicality to remove him from a presidential race they know they cannot win against him. And, increasingly, it looks as if most Mexicans agree with him.

New polls out this week show sentiment against the desafuero is growing. One, by Consulta Mitofsky, has 80% of the population opposed to it, compared with 58% last September. Even among the grass-roots of parties formally ranged against Mr Obrador, most are hostile. Another poll suggests 78% of those in urban areas are similarly against it.

These numbers will be closely watched by Mr Obrador's opponents, particularly the leaders of the former ruling party, the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI). For ultimately the mayor's fate is in their hands. A simple majority vote in Congress is required to pass the desafuero. Although the PRI, the party with the most seats, does not have an overall majority, it could easily get a vote through in alliance with President Fox's National Action Party (PAN), which has already indicated a willingness to vote against Mr Obrador.

But with the mayor winning the battle of public opinion, the PRI will probably want to think again. Most people regard Mr Obrador's legal infringement as petty and even frivolous compared with what many PRI leaders have got away with in the past. To remove the most popular candidate from the presidential race on these grounds would undermine the democratic credibility of the eventual winner. He or she would have even less legitimacy than President Carlos Salinas had in 1988, after fraudulently stealing the election from another left-wing candidate, Cuauhtemoc Crdenas.

A more likely outcome, therefore, would be for the desafuero to die in the four-person congressional commission now examining it. Just one of the two PRI members would need to vote against it for it to be prevented from going on to a full vote by Congress. Mexico could then have its epic showdown between Mr Obrador and his arch rival, the PRI's Roberto Madrazo, in 2006. And if Mr Obrador won that contest, he would finally have his chance to prove whether he is going to be Mexico's Lula, as many hope, or Mexico's Chvez, as just as many others fear.

The Economist
The Americas
Marzo 19, 2005